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LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $9.5M, down 6.9% YoY; adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $30.5M as CarbonSmart fuel sales grew but carried lower margins, and OpEx rose on strategic review and cost actions .
  • Mix shift: CarbonSmart revenue surged to $4.2M vs $0.9M a year ago, while Biorefining and JDA & Contract Research declined as prior-phase engineering contracts rolled off .
  • Liquidity remains the central risk: cash, restricted cash, and investments fell to $23.4M at 3/31; the company closed $40M preferred equity in May, yet GAAP assessment concluded “substantial doubt” remains about going concern .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, Q1 revenue materially missed and EBITDA loss was worse; EPS vs S&P “Primary EPS” showed a miss, noting S&P methodology can differ from GAAP EPS reporting (see Estimates Context). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • CarbonSmart ramp: direct fuel sales accelerated (CarbonSmart $4.2M vs $0.9M YoY) driven by licensing arrangements, partners, and supply chain built in 3Q 2024 .
  • Net loss improved YoY to $(19.2)M from $(25.5)M, aided by a $17.9M non‑cash gain on financial instruments, partially offset by equity method losses .
  • Strategic sharpening: management continued shifting core operations from R&D to global deployment, streamlining operations and cost structure; March-end balance sheet supplemented by $40M preferred equity in May .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue softness vs consensus and prior base: total revenue $9.48M vs S&P consensus $23.10M,* reflecting declines in Biorefining ($2.9M vs $5.0M YoY) and JDA & Contract Research ($2.4M vs $4.3M YoY) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Margin pressure: cost of revenue rose to $7.5M (vs $6.8M YoY) on mix shift toward lower‑margin CarbonSmart; biorefining margins contracted on customer mix .
  • Going concern risk not alleviated despite financing and cost actions, amplifying investor focus on near-term funding and project monetization milestones .

Financial Results

P&L snapshot (last three quarters)

Metric ($USD Millions unless noted)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue$9.94 $12.03 $9.48
Cost of Revenue$8.10 $5.60 $7.50
Gross Profit$1.80 $6.50 $2.00
Operating Expenses$34.80 $33.50 $33.00
Net Loss$(57.43) $(26.99) $(19.23)
Adjusted EBITDA Loss$(27.10) $(21.23) $(30.51)
Net loss per share (basic/diluted)$(0.29) $(0.14) $(0.10)

Segment and revenue detail

Revenue Component ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Biorefining$5.0 $2.9
JDA & Contract Research$4.3 $2.4
CarbonSmart$0.9 $4.2
Total Revenue (company view)$10.2 $9.5
Total Revenues (GAAP statement)$10.24 $9.48

KPIs and liquidity

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash, restricted cash & investments$89.1 $58.1 $23.4
Weighted-avg shares (basic/diluted)197.77M 197.79M 196.51M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Formal financial guidanceFY/Q1 2025None provided in Q4 2024 release beyond qualitative liquidity initiatives None provided in Q1 2025 release Maintained (no formal guidance)
Going concern assessmentQ4 2024Substantial doubt under GAAP Substantial doubt maintained under GAAP Maintained
Capital actionsQ1 2025$40M convertible note in Aug 2024 $40M preferred equity closed in May 2025 New financing closed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

(Note: No Q1 2025 transcript was available on the document catalog or IR site; trends anchored in company disclosures.)

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
CarbonSmart fuel salesCarbonSmart $3.9M in Q4; infrastructure/licensing built in 2H’24 CarbonSmart $4.2M; lower margin mix lifts cost of revenue Up in revenue; margin-dilutive
Project pipeline / FIDProject Drake advancing; Norway project moving toward Brookfield FID; SECURE DOE phase one awarded Continued deployment focus; monetization/transfer remains key to revenue timing Execution pace critical
Liquidity / financing$40M capital raise in Aug 2024; cash $58.1M at 12/31 $40M preferred closed in May; cash/investments $23.4M at 3/31; going concern doubt remains Elevated risk; needs milestones
Cost actions / OpExOpEx $33.5M in Q4, project-related costs expected to be recovered post-FID OpEx $33.0M on business focus and strategy evaluation Cost base being reshaped
Business model evolutionExpanded to include ethanol off‑take (ArcelorMittal) and more project ownership Continued shift from R&D to deployment, streamlining and focus Transition ongoing

Management Commentary

  • “From a financial point of view, third-quarter 2024 ended on a disappointing note... we have steadily made commercial progress... announcing our first long-term committed off‑take agreement with... ArcelorMittal, and the advancement of Project Drake...” — Dr. Jennifer Holmgren, CEO .
  • Q1 2025 release emphasized actions “to sharpen the business focus, streamline operations, and improve the Company's cost structure,” while acknowledging going concern doubt despite $40M preferred equity .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available in the document catalog or IR site listings (searched May–June 2025 window; none found).

Estimates Context

Metric (S&P Global Consensus)Q1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Primary EPS Consensus Mean-$0.15*-$0.1869*
Revenue Consensus Mean$23.10M*$9.48M*
EBITDA Consensus Mean-$28.90M*-$30.27M*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Note: Company-reported GAAP EPS for Q1 2025 was $(0.10) per share . S&P “Primary EPS” methodologies can differ from GAAP EPS, leading to discrepancies.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • CarbonSmart is scaling and can be a near-term revenue driver, but investors should underwrite its lower gross margin profile and cash conversion dynamics .
  • Funding runway is tight: cash/investments were $23.4M at quarter‑end; despite $40M preferred, going concern risk persists. Stock likely remains highly sensitive to financing updates and project monetization (Drake, Norway/Brookfield, SECURE) .
  • Revenue trajectory hinges on timing of project transfers/sublicenses; watch for FID decisions and LanzaJet sublicensing cadence given prior timing-related revenue shortfalls .
  • Expect consensus revisions lower on revenue and possibly EBITDA after a substantial top‑line miss to S&P estimates; plan for volatility around liquidity and strategic actions. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Non‑GAAP adjustments are large and volatile (fair value changes in instruments, equity method investee losses); focus on cash burn, project-level cash inflows, and OpEx reduction to assess pathway to breakeven .
  • Leadership and cost optimization actions announced post‑quarter (new CFO, role consolidations, ~$1M annual savings) modestly improve cost profile and execution focus on SAF opportunities .
  • Near-term trading: stock likely reacts to liquidity headlines and milestones on Drake/Norway; medium-term thesis depends on proving repeatable project transfers and CarbonSmart margin/cash discipline.